Friday, June 6, 2008

Unemployment Rate Leaps to 5.5%, Payrolls Decline by 49,000

Proving yet again that my one year old is better at forecasting the unemployment rate, economists collectively missed the mark by a wide margin in their estimates that the unemployment rate would merely uptick to 5.1%  Instead, the unemployment rate leapt by the most is two decades.  While a 5.5% unemployment rate is not necessarily the death knell for the US economy, the trend higher poses a conundrum for our friendly monetary policy makers at the Fed.  After running off at the mouth about the risks of inflation to signal their intent to end the easy-money bank bailout scheme, they may need to change their tune again.  Bernake's insistence that the current economic environment did not resemble 70's style stagflation may be true, but we may be entering a new period of 2008-style stagflation.  That would be food-hoarding-$5-gas-paying-negative-equity-just-lost-my-job-as-mortgage-broker-can't-pay-the-loan-I-sold-myself-last-year style stagflation.  While those who remember scheduling several hours into their day to wait around in line for gas in the 70's know that things can't possibly be that bad this time around, younger folks may not be so sure.  Where'd my shiny new condo with the granite countertops go?  Why didn't my stock portfolio return a riskless 8% this year like my money manager promised?  Most importantly, what traders want to know is the following:  Why do they insist on reporting that stupid unemployment number on a Friday when I am hungover from the night before and hate everybody I work with?  I know I told you "I love you, man" last night, but that doesn't mean I'm going to give you a good market today.  Get lost!

1 comment:

Richard Jennings said...

Yes unemployment is up but you are not a statistic and there are still thousands of 75K, 100K and 150K jobs out there. try these sites:

http://www.realmatch.com
http://www.monster.com
http://www.hotjobs.com

I believe that if you truly want and try to find a good job, you just will.