Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise, Proving Every Dead Cat Has Its Bounce

The pending home sales index unexpectedly rose in April by 6.3% to 88.2 from the previous month.  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, claims that this is due to an increase in bargain-hunting in areas where home prices have declined significantly.  The pending sales index, which is based on signed contracts for previously owned homes was 13.1% below the level of 101.5 in April 2007.  Pending sales in the Northeast decreased by 1.9%, while sales in the Midwest, South, and West all increased by 13%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively.  The NAR is forecasting existing home sales to reach 5.4 million this year and 5.74 million in 2009.  Based on those estimates, Mr. Yun may be campaigning for the head post at the National Association of Delusional Home Sales Optimists.  I'd like to point out to Mr. Yun that April existing home sales pointed to an annual pace of 4.89 million homes.  I'm wondering where the extra 500,000 units are going to come from to fulfill his estimates.  Those who are actually interested in purchasing a home in this dismal and uncertain economic environment are asking:  Can't we all just get a loan?  The banks are more than willing to comply, provided you have real assets, real cash for a hefty down payment, a real job, and maybe a kid or two for collateral.  5.4 million homes sold this year?  Time to throw another dart at that dart board...