When I first hear a crazy rumor such as this one, I instinctively instant message or call every trader I know and ask if he's heard the rumor, thus contributing to the spreading of the rumor without really knowing the origin or having any facts to support the supposition. As I spent all day today in a courtroom hoping I wouldn't end up as a juror on a one-month murder trial, I didn't have a chance to engage in any rumormongering. Inspired by the strict instructions handed down by the judge for the murder trial, I have decided to look at the evidence before jumping to any conclusions:
- Barclays raised $8.9 billion from investors last week to raise its capital adequacy ratios.
- Lehman raised $6 billion three weeks ago, including $4 billion in common stock at $28.
- Lehman is a pure play US investment bank with significant mortgage related risks sitting on its balance sheet.
- Barclays is already in the US investment banking business.
From Lehman's perspective, it makes absolutely no sense that Dick Fuld would be looking for an opportunity to sell the bank at $15 a share a mere three weeks after he just raised money at $28 from a slew of supposedly savvy institutional investors. That would absolutely put the final nail in Lehman's credibility coffin. Because if Mr. Fuld was shopping the bank around at $15, the implication would be that Lehman is having counterparty or liquidity problems. In that case, it would be better to wait for the opportunity to buy Lehman at $2 with the Fed promising to take the first $30 billion in losses.
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