Friday, May 23, 2008

Record Crude Prices Blamed on Hurricanes, Traders, OPEC...Etc

According to Bloomberg, crude oil prices rose near record levels again because the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned of a more severe hurricane season than originally forecast. This story is quickly followed by another blaming crude's rise to $135 on traders who have been forced to cover losing short bets. Meanwhile, Congress has unearthed this mysterious orginization called OPEC, who unexpectedly formed a cartel with the evil plan of cornering the crude oil market. Who are these people called OPEC? Too bad they weren't around when oil was trading $10 a barrel. We could've sued them back then when the price of oil was obviously too low. The House of Representatives, fulfilling their duty to always pass useful legislation aimed at resolving our country's issues, voted this week to sue OPEC. Who will this legislation benefit the most? Possibly class action lawyers, who can now begin to gather plaintiffs for a huge class action lawsuit on behalf of every American to reclaim their God-given right to cheap oil from the Middle East. There are plenty of lawyers on Capital Hill so maybe one or two of them can explain to me how we can force countries outside of our jurisdiction to follow our anti-trust laws. More importantly, how do legislators expect to hold the Middle East responsible for our insatiable consumption habits? What I know for certain is that this legislation won't and can't lower the price of oil.
There are two and only two culprits that explain the rise in crude prices: supply and demand. On the demand side, we have the United States who refuses to change its consumption habits. Then we have China and India growing at 10% a year, giving rise to a new segment of demand that never existed before. Certainly there are "speculators" who have entered the commodities trading arena because it is "hot" now. But if you drive a car and heat your home and you're buying into an oil fund, then you are not really speculating, you are hedging your future consumption needs. The fact remains that a high price is being supported by a significant increase in demand as parts of the world rise out of poverty and demand cars and heat, luxuries that are no longer out of their reach. One can even make the argument that the price of energy has been too cheap and that consumers will only change their oil consumption habits when it gets too expensive to make economic sense. We are finally starting to get to that point as consumers are finally beginning to tire of driving large gas guzzling vehicles.
In terms of the supply side, there is the serious question of how much oil is left in the ground. The large, cheap oil fields are in decline and few new discoveries have been made. People are beginning to believe the "peak-oil" theory, instead of chalking it up to a bunch of alarmists looking for attention. Apparently, even the International Energy Agency is conducting a survey to assess the condition of the top 400 oil fields. The results will be available in November. Be sure to check back for an update then. In the meantime, there's a class action lawyer I need to call...

1 comment:

Unknown said...

You forgot to add that:
"Given that two-thirds of Americans are overweight, we should have the good manners not to complain about high food prices with our mouths full," India said in an edit piece Monday titled "US a food wasteland". Airlines need to start charging for high BMI's...scumbag lawyers would love that too.