Thursday, May 1, 2008

Back From One-Month Vacation, Analyst Downgrades Thornburg

An analyst from Friedman Billings downgraded Thornburg Mortgage yesterday to Underperform from Outperform. He claimed that the recent capital raise and related transactions result in 95% dilution and questions how shares will trade when 2.9 billion restricted common shares are registered and start trading mid-May. I have to wonder if this guy just got back from a one month vacation and found Thornburg's one-month old 8-K in his inbox. I am not a professional analyst, and yet it took me about 15 minutes to read and dispense an opinion on Thornburg's private placement released on March 25th. The dilution problem was clearly outlined when the company was attempting to raise the money it needed to stay alive. Did it really take this guy a month of analysis to come to the conclusion that the stock just might "underperform" when an additional 2.9 BILLION shares are issued? Can his abacus not count that high?
What is truly astonishing about this downgrade is the number of opportunities the analyst chose to ignore to decide the company was in trouble. For example, when Thornburg's repo lenders issued margin calls that the company couldn't meet, was that not a clue that it might not be outperforming its peers? Or when the company attempted to raise a convertible with a 12% interest rate that investors wouldn't touch, did that not raise a red flag? Or perhaps it may have been appropriate to downgrade the stock when the actual announcement was made about the $1.35 billion private placement that paid an 18% coupon and came with detachable warrants of a gagillion shares of stock issued at a penny? Thornburg didn't even outperform the other high-profile near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns. Given all of the people currently getting laid off on Wall Street, how does this clown still have a job?

1 comment:

Unknown said...

2 words...Friedman Who?