Tuesday, April 8, 2008

IMF Wants New Role as Equity Analyst..

Taking its lead from bank analysts, the IMF has decided to enter the How-much-will-this-credit-debacle-ultimately-cost-the-universe guessing game. The IMF's estimate is $945 billion. What I don't like about this estimate is that it is not a nice round number. Why didn't they just round up to $1 Trillion? Since they have no idea and are just guessing, why not make a much bolder statement? What, all of a sudden, makes the IMF an expert on the mortgage market? Although I would wager that the IMF doesn't have any experienced MBS analysts on their staff, they are experts in lending money to institutions who consistently default on their loans. So maybe $945 billion is the right number.

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