Thursday, April 10, 2008

Goldman's Blankfein Says End to Credit Crisis is Near..

Blankfein claims we are in the third or fourth quarter of the credit crisis, although he hedges by saying that the fourth quarter of most sports events tends to be the longest. Separately, yet totally related, Goldman punted $500 million of Chrysler bonds for $.63. So, let me get this straight, the credit crisis is almost over, yet GS is puking bonds at $.63. That's a mighty big discount if this credit crisis is really just a mark-to-market phenomenon and not indicative of future defaults. In Blankfein's defense, it is his job as CEO to try restore confidence at a meeting of GS shareholders. Furthermore, I'm certain that every dealer involved in the bond syndication of this deal knew it was a turkey at the time, but the capital markets shut down abruptly before they could offload any of the bonds.

Just how big of a turkey this deal would turn out to be didn't start to dawn on anyone until, oh I don't know, maybe three days after the deal closed. Was it the $2.7 billion in losses that Chrysler reported immediately following the buyout that gave it away? Or maybe it was the move by Cerberus, the PE firm who took Chrysler private, to hire Robert Nardinelli, a non-car-industry executive to run Chrysler? Robert Nardinelli, for those who don't recall, is the genius who was sacked from Home Depot after six years of below average performance (the stock declined while rival Lowe's rose significantly), because he wouldn't take a pay cut. I guess no CEO can be expected to live off of less than $200 million. At any rate, if I were GS, I'd be looking to hit the next bid behind that $.63...

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