Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Will Bear Stearns Rise From the Ashes?

My "inside sources" are pointing out that the Bear Stearns trade may not be over.  Now, the speculation goes something like this:  Bear Stearns shareholders hate this deal, for obvious reasons.  They still have to vote to approve it.  They are going to vote no, and give the Fed the middle finger.  Out of spite, they'd rather get $0 than $2 a share, and let the Fed deal with the aftermath of trying to get the money back on the $30 billion in illiquid securities that it guaranteed so that JP Morgan would agree to purchase Bear.  Also, maybe the shareholders assume that after the Fed eases and the new $200 Billion dollar Treasury/MBS swap with the broker dealer community commences on March 27th, spreads will have improved so much that they will be able to get a better deal on their portfolio.  In fact, spreads in the agency markets have narrowed considerably so maybe they have a point.  In any case, crazy volatility persists in the options market.  The april 20 calls are .40 bid.  That kind of crazy bullishness on a broker we haven't seen in a long time...  

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