In his defense, Mr. Bernanke has a very difficult job. First he had to save the economy from being demolished by the unraveling of years of unsupervised (yes, he was supposed to supervise) and reckless lending by the financial services industry. The effects of the massive deleveraging are still being felt, as yesterday's Fed release of the Flow of Funds report revealed. Household net worth declined by another $1.3 trillion in the first quarter, bringing the total decline from the peak to $14 trillion. So if you're feeling less rich than you were a year ago, you're in good company. Add this on top of back-to-back quarters of annualized GDP declines of 6% and the severity of the situation becomes clear.
The Federal Reserve has enacted an extraordinary amount of monetary stimulus by lowering interest rates to zero, loaning trillions to the Street versus any type of collateral no matter how shoddy, and then buying mortgages and Treasuries to drive long term interest rates down as well. But still, $14 trillion is a big number, and given the excesses in housing that still need to be flushed from the system, it's not coming back anytime soon. The ultimate question is: will all of this cause inflation that the Fed cannot contain? The Fed seems to think it can pull back the spigot in time to avoid runaway inflation, but given how late the Fed was to the credit crisis party, and how quickly it had to invent schemes and acronyms to combat the collapse in lending, I'm not so sure I trust the Fed. The only thing certain is that we are in uncharted waters and nobody really knows how this is going to end.
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