Thursday, April 9, 2009

Trade Deficit Plunges to 1999 Levels

The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed from $36.2 billion in January to $26 billion in February (click on the link for some great charts highlighting this continuing trend.) The narrowing was primarily due to an $8.2 billion decline in imports. Since the price of oil remained stable in the period, the narrowing can not be attributed to oil-related imports. What is essentially happening is that US consumers are no longer on a buying binge. Nations that were running large trade surpluses due to their reliance on exporting goods to the US are no longer running surpluses as demand in the US plummets. Economies that relied on exports to fuel their growth are hosed. Since they aren’t running surpluses they don’t have extra dollars to plough back into US Treasuries. So what I want to know is this; Who, other than the Fed, is going to buy all of the Treasuries we need to issue in the next few years to finance our massive stimulus efforts?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"Who, other than the Fed, is going to buy all of the Treasuries we need to issue in the next few years to finance our massive stimulus efforts? "

US consumers.

They are moving from saving -1% of their income to saving maybe 8% of their income.

This is necessary for the new equilibrium to be a stable one.