Wednesday, July 2, 2008

JP Morgan Analysts Say "Worst is Over" For Banks

Bank stocks are experiencing a dead-cat bounce today on an analyst note issued by JP Morgan claiming that the worst of debt-related losses and write-downs are over for European banks.  Hmm, that refrain sounds awfully familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on where I've heard it before.  But since a bank analyst said it, it must be true.  Those guys are never wrong about anything.  Incidentally, analysts are currently predicting an earnings increase of 7% for S&P 500 companies for the full year of 2008 over 2007.  This would imply a very large bounce in earnings in the second quarter.  Even my one year old thinks that is a bit farfetched, and she spends most of her day repeating her mantra: "gum gum gum."  
In other bullish banking news, UBS Chairman, Peter Kurer said the bank won't be asking investors for new funds.  Well, that's a relief.  If the Chairman says they won't raise anymore money then it definitely must be true.  After all, UBS hasn't screwed up anything important in the past six hours or so.  Maybe Mr. Kurer has yet to factor in any of the cash the company is going to have to shell out to cover the settlements with the various regulatory agencies it is entangled with.  Even bear markets experience the occasional bounce, so I'll let the Bulls take over for the morning.  We'll see how long this rally can last. 


A said...

How can we find out if stock prices go up because of shorts covering or due to generally bullish buys?

jack said...

well, i'd say there's no definitive way to tell, but you can track short interest in an equity on a daily basis and track options volumes. that might give you an idea, but i'm not sure that you ever really know.